Assessing the U.S. Power System's Ability to Support Data Center Growth

After a period of relatively stagnant growth, the U.S. electric grid is now experiencing a surge in demand, expected to soon exceed levels not seen since just after World War II. This rapid growth, coupled with the increasing complexity of the grid, presents significant challenges for determining whether there will be sufficient capacity. Using forecast data and metrics supplied annually to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) by U.S. Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs), we assessed whether the U.S. grid possesses adequate capacity and safety margins (i.e., reference margin level) to accommodate all demand, including projected data center demand between 2025 and 2030. In our analysis, we extracted the relevant supply and demand metrics. The selected supply metrics help us to represent the real capacity of the grid, reflecting effective load carrying capacity (ELCC). The report accounts for transmission limitations, line de/up-ratings, retirements, fuel availability, and so on. And because the demand numbers were from July 2024, we applied a demand forecast multiplier for each region to account for demand increases reported in early 2025. This report delivers our findings.