Road to a rapid transition to sustainable energy security in Europe
- Vincent Petit
- 17 Oct 2022
- 5 min
What you need to know
Research from the Schneider Electric Research Institute finds that the EU could raise electricity's share of final energy demand from 20% to 50% using only commercially mature technologies like heat pumps, electric boilers, and battery-electric vehicles. This shift would cut end-use CO₂ emissions by approximately 1,300 MtCO₂ per year and reduce both natural gas and oil supply by roughly 50%, simultaneously addressing the EU's decarbonization targets and energy security vulnerabilities.
Fossil fuels still supply roughly 70% of the European Union's total energy. That dependence costs twice: it feeds a climate crisis and leaves the continent exposed to the geopolitics of gas pipelines and oil tankers. Russia alone accounts for 40% of EU natural gas imports and 27% of oil. The question isn't whether Europe should wean itself off these fuels. It's how fast.
That conclusion comes from a process-level analysis of every EU member state's energy system, covering 17 industrial sectors and hundreds of individual process steps. The study focused exclusively on substitutions where the technology is already deployed at scale and the economics already favor the switch. In other words: only the easy wins.
20% → 50%
Electricity's share of EU final energy demand, achievable with existing technology
~1,300 MtCO₂/y
Emissions reduction at end-use from rapid electrification
~50%
Reduction in natural gas and oil supply
The EU emits around 2,900 MtCO₂ per year. Buildings, mobility, and industry each contribute roughly a third. Germany leads at about 700 MtCO₂ per year; France, Italy, and Poland follow at around 300 MtCO₂ per year each.
Those emissions track almost perfectly onto fossil fuel consumption. Natural gas flows overwhelmingly to buildings (40% of supply) and power generation (30%). Oil goes to road transport (60% of supply). Coal powers electricity grids. Cut fossil fuel consumption for decarbonization, and you simultaneously shrink the import volumes that make Europe vulnerable.
That's the core finding: the decarbonization ambition of the EU-27 is the most rational path to energy security. They aren't competing priorities. They're the same project.
The analysis builds on the Joint Research Center's "Integrated Database of the European Energy Sector," which mapped actual energy use across 17 sectors and hundreds of process steps in every EU member state. The research team scored each process step on two axes: whether the electric alternative is already deployed at scale and whether the switch is economically attractive or operationally simple.
Heat pumps, electric boilers, infrared drying systems, electric compressors, and battery-electric vehicles — none of these are laboratory curiosities. They're commercially mature. When you tally every process step where the substitution scores high on both criteria, the electrification rate jumps from today's 20% to roughly 50%.
The ratio varies by country. Italy reaches nearly 60%. The Netherlands lands below 40%, pulled down by a large petrochemical sector that's harder to electrify. France and Spain already show higher baseline electrification thanks to nuclear and renewable energy mixes.
Around 80% of the new electricity demand would come from buildings and road mobility. And since 90% of EV charging happens on building premises, the infrastructure challenge concentrates squarely in the building stock. Electricity demand in buildings would more than double.
That sounds daunting. But the study finds that pairing electrification with distributed generation (rooftop solar) and digital efficiency tools can cut energy spending by 10% to 80% across different building types, while keeping infrastructure upgrade costs below 8% of acquisition value. The combination of heat pumps, smart controls, and on-site renewables doesn't just decarbonize a building. It transforms the economics of owning one.
The emissions arithmetic is striking. Buildings and road mobility account for 90% of the CO₂ savings. Electrification alone could save 1,300 MtCO₂ per year, a figure slightly higher than the rough target implied by the EU's 2030 commitment to cut emissions 55% below 1990 levels.
On the supply side, natural gas displacement ranges from 30% to 60% depending on the country. Oil displacement runs between 10% and 70%, driven largely by how much of a nation's oil goes to road transport versus petrochemical refining. Coal takes a smaller hit (around 5%), since most coal-dependent processes sit in power generation and heavy industry, outside the "easy-to-abate" boundary of this analysis.
And there's still room beyond that. The study maps a full fossil fuel substitution roadmap: electrifying the remaining demand-side processes (trucks, metals treatment, petrochemical cracking) could displace another 20% of fossil fuel supply. Decarbonizing power generation tackles another 25%. Switching industrial feedstocks covers the final 20%.
The study models three scenarios. At current rates, the impact by 2030 remains marginal: about 100 MtCO₂ per year saved and negligible gas displacement. A policy-driven scenario (3% annual renovation rate, current EV forecasts) pushes to 275 MtCO₂ per year saved and roughly 10% displacement of gas and oil. An ambitious scenario (5% renovation rate, 30% fleet electrification) reaches 500 MtCO₂ per year and 15% to 25% displacement.
The ambitious path requires renovating around 120 million buildings and putting 95 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030. Those are large numbers. They're also specific, measurable targets, not abstractions.
Europe's energy transition is often framed as a tension between climate ambition and economic reality. This process-level analysis suggests the opposite. The technology to electrify half the energy system already exists. The economics, in many cases, already favor the switch. The infrastructure challenge is real but manageable with the right combination of digital tools and distributed generation.
The question isn't whether rapid electrification is feasible. It's whether the pace of policy and investment will match the pace the technology has already made possible.
Find out how EU electrification can be the path to energy security. Read "Road to a rapid transition to sustainable energy security in Europe"
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