Charting A Sustainable Path for AI Needs a Europe-Wide Approach or Risks Creating Crises, Finds Schneider Electric Study

Schneider Electric, a global energy technology leader, launches new research into the growth of artificial intelligence and its impact on the continent's electricity demand. The findings in "AI & Energy in Europe" reveal that without immediate coordinated investment in grid infrastructure, smarter electricity management, and cross-sector partnerships, Europe risks facing a significant energy crisis that could stall innovation and economic progress.

The report models four scenarios looking at the expansion of data center capacity and expected energy demand, based on different regulatory regimes. It shows that by 2030, European AI electricity consumption could follow dramatically different paths: 45 TWh under constrained development, 90 TWh through coordinated sustainable development, 145 TWh under unchecked expansion, or a volatile trajectory oscillating between crisis and recovery.

However, each European country is managing AI energy demand from a different starting point. Countries with low-carbon electricity and flexible resources – including storage, dispatchable generation, and workload shifting – absorb AI growth with minimal emissions increases, while fossil fuel-dependent systems see digital demand drive emissions even under strict efficiency standards.

The study identifies that coordinated action is needed across three dimensions for countries to achieve sustainable AI trajectories: building infrastructure ahead of demand through accelerated deployment of firm and flexible capacity and modern, flexible electricity systems; implementing adaptive regulation with adequacy-responsive triggers and dynamic connection gating; and accelerating grid decarbonization by ensuring AI loads are integrated within appropriate system contexts that support low-carbon operations with EU-wide performance standards.

“Europe has a unique opportunity to lead in sustainable AI development. Currently, it has less than 5% of the world's computing infrastructure, well below its share of global GDP,” said Laurent Bataille, Executive Vice President, European Operations at Schneider Electric.“But to unlock the full potential of AI while meeting our climate goals, it is clear from this research that we must work together to accelerate permitting processes, facilitate a faster and simpler connection to the grid, and continue to invest in decarbonized electricity capacity. Electricity is the backbone of Europe’s digital future, so if managed in the right way, we have the chance to succeed in the digital and energy transitions together.”

“AI's energy trajectory is not inevitable – it depends on the choices we make today on three pillars: technology, regulation, and infrastructure,” said Rémi Paccou, Director of Sustainability Research at Schneider Electric and lead author. “This research shows the importance of coupling AI technology development with electricity infrastructure expansion and adaptive regulation that responds to real-world conditions. "Sustainable AI in Europe is achievable, but only through deliberate design – and the window to reach it is narrowing without conscious action across the continent." 

Special thanks to Thomas Le Goff, Assistant Professor of Law & Technology at Télécom Paris and CERRE Fellow, whose expertise lies in AI regulation, digital law, and sustainability policy, and who co-authored this study. Co-author Fons Wijnhoven, Associate Professor at the University of Twente, contributed his system dynamics modeling expertise, crucial for scenario building and feedback analysis. Appreciation also goes to Somya Joshi, Research Director at the Stockholm Environment Institute, for providing expert guidance on governance and cross-sector approaches.

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