Time to power: A generational cycle of modernization in the US
- By Vincent Petit
- 17 Nov 2025
- 5 min
The United States is entering a generational modernization cycle, yet most energy forecasts miss this reality. Traditional models perpetuate existing economic structures, projecting incremental change while overlooking the fundamental shifts reshaping how Americans live, work, travel, and manufacture. The question isn't whether modernization will happen, but whether the U.S. will build the infrastructure to enable it.
Our latest analysis, developed in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), takes a different approach. Rather than modeling energy supply in isolation, it examines the transformation of energy services — the actual demand drivers embedded in our economy. Through two scenarios, New Legacy (incremental change constrained by institutional roadblocks) and New Frontier (rapid innovation adoption and coordinated investment), the research reveals a striking conclusion: regardless of path, the U.S. energy system will look fundamentally different by 2050. And the next 1,000 days will determine whether America seizes this opportunity or stumbles toward infrastructure gridlock.
Energy forecasting has long focused on supply-side dynamics — modeling resources, generation capacity, and fuel transitions. But this misses the real drivers of energy system evolution. History shows that energy transitions follow transformations in how energy is used. Coal didn't reshape America because it replaced wood. It did so by enabling railroads, factories, and urban heating systems. Oil's dominance came not from displacing coal, but from powering automobiles and transforming mobility.
Today's transformations are equally profound but harder to see. Autonomous vehicles, AI-driven manufacturing, modular construction, and distributed energy resources are interconnected forces reshaping the structure of the U.S. economy. Understanding tomorrow's energy system requires understanding tomorrow's economy.
Three macrotrends converge to reshape America's economic landscape:
Innovation
Digital technologies (AI, automation, IoT), energy innovations (distributed solar, batteries, heat pumps), and materials breakthroughs are creating cascading effects across sectors. The batteries that powered smartphones enabled electric vehicles. The chip miniaturization that drove personal computing made AI possible.
Investment
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities are driving reshoring and nearshoring. Capital is flowing toward regional resilience, automated production, and manufacturing closer to consumption centers — fundamentally altering where and how industrial activity occurs.
Culture
America's ethos of self-determination favors decentralized solutions, local control, and autonomy. This manifests in growing appetite for distributed energy, community-centered living, and technologies that enable self-sufficiency — from rooftop solar to remote work to localized manufacturing.
The modernization of the U.S. economy is fundamentally an electrification story. Electricity's share of final energy demand — stuck at 23% for 15 years — will rise to 45-57% by 2050. This represents a doubling of the power system in 25 years, with electricity demand growing from approximately 4,000 TWh today to 5,000 TWh by 2030 and 7,200-8,600 TWh by 2050.
This isn't a short-term data center issue requiring a quick fix. It’s a structural transformation across the entire economy:
- 40%of near-term growth driven by data centers, with AI demand rising 4-6× by 2030 (reaching ~500 TWh)
- 20-25%of growth through 2030 contributed by manufacturing reshoring and modernization
- Another 20-25%added by building electrification — heat pumps, cooking, modern appliances
- 20-30%of growth in the 2030s accelerated by electric mobility in post-2030
- 25-45%of total generation growth by 2050 could be supplied by distributed rooftop solar, equivalent to 900-2000 TWh
This is a growth rate of 2.2-3% annually — levels the U.S. hasn't sustained in two decades.
The research models two plausible futures for the U.S. energy system. Each reflects different speeds of innovation adoption, investment patterns, and infrastructure development. While both lead to a more digital and electric economy, the pathway varies significantly.
New Legacy
Before large-scale modernization can take hold, this scenario assumes a slower pace of technological adoption and limited structural change. Economic and energy transitions unfold, but without the full benefits of coordinated investment or accelerated innovation.
Incremental modernization shaped by institutional constraints- Institutional barriers slow innovation and digital adoption.
- Suburbanization continues as the dominant living pattern.
- Reshoring and industrial modernization advance, but unevenly.
- Infrastructure upgrades lag behind rising electricity demand.
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New Frontier
In this future, rapid innovation diffusion and policy alignment enable a structural shift in how Americans live, work, and manufacture. New economic patterns emerge, supported by advanced automation and a more decentralized energy system.
A sweeping transformation powered by digitalization, electrification, and distributed energy- Growth of “micropolitan cities” enabled by remote work and digital services.
- Residential space expands substantially, reaching ~1,100 sq ft per capita.
- Manufacturing becomes more automated and distributed, supported by robotics and additive techniques.
- Construction accelerates through digital design and emerging building innovations.
- Distributed energy—including rooftop solar—deploys quickly, easing grid constraints and expanding access to clean, affordable electricity.
Both scenarios converge on one reality: the U.S. needs an additional 1,000 TWh of electricity by 2030. Meeting this demand requires solving two challenges simultaneously — ramping generation capacity and integrating new loads onto the grid.
The pathway forward centers on distributed energy resources. Rooftop solar can deploy faster than utility-scale projects, better navigating interconnection queues and administrative bottlenecks. When combined with batteries, heat pumps, and intelligent controls, distributed systems create "headroom" on existing infrastructure by managing peak demand. Schneider Electric modeling shows energy bills can drop up to 80% while reducing peak loads, enabling more electrification without grid upgrades.
The next 1,000 days will determine whether the U.S. embraces this distributed, digitalized infrastructure buildout — or defaults to incremental upgrades that perpetually lag behind demand.
Accelerating interconnection processes for distributed and utility-scale generation
Deploying demand-side flexibility at scale (smart controls, storage, EV integration)
Coordinating regional energy planning with economic development strategies
Removing institutional barriers to innovation adoption
The scenarios in this research are explorations of what's possible when we properly account for the transformative power of innovation, investment, and cultural evolution. What's certain is that we will not live in 2050 as we do in 2025. Whether America builds the infrastructure for abundance — or constrains its own modernization through infrastructure lag — will be determined by the decisions made in the next 1,000 days. Discover more in our report.
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